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MARKET TREND ANALYSIS

Weekly Energy Market Updates by Region - Archive

 

 

 


Issue week: July 18th, 2019  (Wk 29)

 

POWER MARKETS

 

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WEST Over the past week, average Day Ahead ATC has risen from $22.00/MWh to $33.52/MWh in SP15 and from $22.86/MWh to $26.50/MWh in Mid-C. In the term market, prices for all calendar years and regions have dropped sharply over the last two weeks, especially fur-ther out the curve.

NATURAL GAS 

The EIA reported Thursday morning that, for the week end-ing July 12, U.S. inventories increased by 62 bcf, just under analysts’ predictions of 65 bcf. During the same week last year, inventories grew by only 46 bcf. Total stockpiles now stand at 2,533 bcf.

The August NYMEX forward price has fallen over the course of the week, settling at $2.290/MMBtu today. Prices in SoCal Citygate have also continued to plunge as a direct result of the CPUC’s decision to allow SoCal Gas to draw from Aliso Canyon in most scenarios. The facility had been the supply of last resort in Southern California.

ERCOT  ATC real-time prices have settled just over $40/MWh across all zones this week. Basis has been relatively low as well. The ORDC online price adder is now $6.50/MWh for the month to date. In addition, lower term heat rates and term natural gas prices have helped decrease fixed prices by $1-$7/MWh, depending on the term.

 

EAST The on-peak index price in PJM West Hub has averaged $34.73/MWh this week. This is slightly higher than in previous weeks this sum-mer because of several hours that saw a spike in prices due to a corre-sponding ramp-up in temperatures. Wild swings in the term markets have sent traders to the sidelines to see where the proverbial dust settles.

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WEATHER 

The 1-to-5-day forecast peri-od will feature a major heat wave with record tempera-tures in much of the central and eastern U.S.

The intense heat should dissi-pate in the Midwest during the 6-to-10-day forecast pe-riod as cooler and drier air moves in. Temperatures should rise above average in the western half of the coun-try.

Over the 11-to-15-day fore-cast period, temperatures are expected to be seasonable throughout most of the U.S. Both the Pacific Coast and the Atlantic Coast should be rather warm.

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CLOSE CALL AVERTED IN NEW YORK CITY

 

More than 70,000 customers of Consolidated Edison (ConEd) in Man-hattan’s West Side were left without power last Saturday between 6:47 p.m. and midnight. Clayton Guse of New York Daily News re-ports that the outage was due not only to failure of a 13,000-volt distribution cable at West 64th Street and West End Avenue but also to failure of the relay protection system designed to divert power around the cable automatically.

On Monday, ConEd said in a statement, "The relay protection system is designed with redundancies to provide high levels of reliability…While the cable fault was an initiating event, the customer outages were the result of the failure of the protective relay systems." Even-tually, once the failure reached the substation at West 49th Street, the relay system there managed to keep the outage from spreading further throughout New York City.

The chart below shows that, on average, real-time load throughout NYISO Zone J, which covers all of New York City, during the outage dropped by approximately 423 MWh, only about 5% of the total load for that zone. Furthermore, despite spikes of $69/MWh at 8:15 p.m. and $66/MWh at 11:00 p.m., hourly prices remained mostly stable over the course of the outage, averaging $34/MWh.

The incident did temporarily shut down five subway lines but caused no lasting damage. Mayor Bill de Blasio commented, “Thankfully, as a result of the quick work of our first responders, no one was injured and there was no spike in crime in the five hours the incident last-ed.” It is fortunate that the outage was resolved relatively quickly and did not spread to the rest of Zone J, especially as a strong heat wave moves through the central and eastern states, increasing the chances of another blackout. Indeed, this Saturday is forecast to be the NYISO system peak for this year.

 

 

 

 

 

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