Weekly Energy Market Updates by Region - Archive

Farmers’ Almanac has released its predictions for the upcoming winter. If those predictions are correct, much of the United States is in for bitter cold.

The revered periodical, which has been in circulation for more than 200 years and provides 16 months of weather forecasts for seven regions spanning the U.S. and Canada, foresees a winter far colder than normal in two-thirds of the country, the worst weather projected east of the Rockies to the Appalachians. Moreover, it suggests that the harshest cold will not arrive until the last week of January or early February and will linger beyond winter until April.

In addition to the cold, the Almanac expects particularly heavy precipitation this winter, especially along the East Coast. However, as shown in its 2019-20 Winter Outlook map below, the area west of the Rockies will enjoy a much more temperate winter with “normal” precipitation. The predicted fluctuations in temperature will be so wild that the publication has cleverly dubbed the trend a “Polar Coaster.”

Despite the reputation of Farmer’s Almanac, its weather predictions should not necessarily be taken as indisputable fact. As David Hennen, senior meteorologist and executive produc-er for CNN Weather, explained three years ago, “It’s difficult enough to do a five-day fore-cast. We’re really good at the day of and the next day…But to forecast out that far in ad-vance…the science behind our long-range forecasting is sometimes not that solid.” Other sources have yet to release their predictions for winter; for example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will publish its outlook next month. Time will tell not only how much they agree with the Almanac’s analysis but also, of course, how right all of them are.

Daily Mail reports that, for its part, Farmer’s Almanac “bases its long-range forecasts on a ‘mathematical and astronomical’ formula.” Nonetheless, although rooted in science, these forecasts are nothing more than educated guesses based on the best available data. Then again, the Almanac can tout many correct predictions over the years, among them the “bomb cyclone” of January 2018. Considering the spike in Real Time prices over the course of those five days last year—when the average in PJM West Hub reached $190.35/MWh—the true rollercoaster ride will be felt in Real Time and Day Ahead LMPs if its latest prog-nostication comes true.