banner_market_intelligence_1440x441

MARKET TREND ANALYSIS

Weekly Energy Market Updates by Region - Archive

 

 

 


Issue week: December 5th, 2019  (Wk 49)

 

POWER MARKETS

Chart1_Energy_Market_Intelligence_Commercial

 

WEST Whereas, in November, below-average temperatures and outages of key transmission lines and generators yielded prices above expectations, front-month term prices have fallen significantly at the outset of December as up-dated forecasts now predict weather warmer than expected. Market partici-pants seem to believe that, with projected heating-related demand for natural gas subdued, the adequate gas inventories will leave plenty for generation as 2020 approaches.

NATURAL GAS 

The EIA reported Thursday morning that, for the week ending November 29, U.S. in-ventories decreased by 19 Bcf, basically right in the heart of the expected withdrawal range of 5-37 Bcf. Total stockpiles now stand at 3,591 Bcf, up by 19.7% from a year ago but 0.3% below the five-year aver-age for the same week.

Although last week’s with-drawal failed to reach the high end of the expected range, an updated forecast projecting cooler weather appears to have provided plenty of sup-port for monthly NYMEX con-tracts. All active months through April 2022 were trad-ing positive as of 12:00pm PT. At one point, the prompt month (January) traded as high as $2.461/MMBtu, $0.062/MMBtu higher than Wednesday’s closing price. Regionally, forward prices in PG&E Citygate were lower five years out, but SoCal Border showed increases over the same period. Cash prices went the opposite way; PG&E Citygate rose while SoCal Citygate fell.

 

ERCOT   Real-time prices have continued to moderate into December; ORDC is currently only $0.01/MWh for the month! Relatively mild temperatures have meant no price spikes from the winter morning ramp. West Load Zone basis has narrowed and is just over $13.00/MWh for the month. Finally, term prices are down throughout the curve over the past week, mainly because of falling term natural gas prices.

EAST  The much anticipated cold that arrived on Sunday and dumped snow on New York and New England managed to lift the average Day Ahead price at Mass Hub for Sunday to $35/MWh, $8/MWh over Saturday’s average. Howev-er, having come and gone quickly and lacked Arctic air, the storms have gen-erally failed to support winter pricing.

Chart1

Map1


 

 

 

Previous Weekly Market Reports: Archive

 

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and all actions and judgments taken in response to it are recipient’s sole responsibility. Champion Energy Services does not guaranty its accuracy. This reports is provided ‘as is’. Champion Energy Services makes no expressed or implied representations or warranties of any kind. Except as otherwise indicated in this report, this report shall remain the sole and exclusive property of Champion Energy Services and shall be free from any claim or right, license, title or interest. Champion Energy Services shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from this report.