Weekly Energy Market Updates by Region - Archive




Issue week: March 19th, 2020  (Wk 12)





WEST Spot prices have increased recently because of a late winter storm. To say that the significant cloud cover from the storm has made it difficult for grid operators to forecast the amount of behind-the-meter solar generation available on the grid is an understatement, considering that, for example, the Real Time average on March 12 was around $114/MWh. In the term market, forward prices for the balance of the year have dropped on expectations of lower demand.

ERCOT  Term prices have been down over the week; the Summer 2020 on-peak price has dropped by nearly $45/MWh from just one month prior! However, real-time prices remain resilient in the low $20s/MWh to mid-$20s/MWh in all zones except the West Load Zone, where the MTD average is nearly $70/MWh. Last week featured a few instances of early cooling load during seasonal maintenance for certain baseload units, yielding several triple-digit price intervals this week.

EAST In response to COVID-19, futures have gone down in the front of the curve while curves for coming years have remained flat for the most part. Terms from 3 to 6 months have dropped by more than $1/MWh. For instance, 3-month terms in Mass Hub and NYISO Zone G have dropped by $1.45/MWh and $1.26/MWh, respectively, from last week. In those same regions, 6-month terms have dropped by $1.27/MWh and $1.08/MWh, respectively.



The EIA reported Thursday morning that, for the week ending March 13, U.S. inventories decreased by 9 Bcf, validating analysts’ predictions, which ranged from a withdrawal of 14 Bcf to an injec-tion of 7 Bcf. Total stockpiles now stand at 2,034 Bcf, up by 76% from a year ago and 16% above the five-year average for the same week.

After the April NYMEX contract closed near $1.60/MMBtu yesterday and the EIA reported such a meager draw-down for last week, many ex-pected that term to drop further into the $1.50s/MMBtu. However, because some analysts were expecting an even smaller extraction of 6 Bcf, the news turned out to be rather bullish. Within the half-hour following the report, April traded at $1.644/MMBtu, approximately $0.04/MMBtu higher than Wednesday’s final. Additionally, all active months through March 2022 traded above yesterday’s close.








Previous Weekly Market Reports: Archive


Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and all actions and judgments taken in response to it are recipient’s sole responsibility. Champion Energy Services does not guaranty its accuracy. This reports is provided ‘as is’. Champion Energy Services makes no expressed or implied representations or warranties of any kind. Except as otherwise indicated in this report, this report shall remain the sole and exclusive property of Champion Energy Services and shall be free from any claim or right, license, title or interest. Champion Energy Services shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from this report.