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MARKET TREND ANALYSIS

Weekly Energy Market Updates by Region - Archive

 

 

 


Issue week: June 25th, 2020  (Wk 26)

 

POWER MARKETS

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WEST The strong hydro generation keeps suppressing index prices in the Pacif-ic Northwest. Since the beginning of June, Day Ahead prices in Mid-C have av-eraged only $6.19/MWh. In CAISO, the dearth of demand due to the corona-virus and relatively mild temperatures in Southern California have yielded a Day Ahead average of $22.40/MWh for the month in SP15. In the term market, pric-es are down for Bal-2020 and CY2021 in all regions after SoCal gas announced that it expects the Aliso Canyon storage cavern to be filled to capacity by early July.

ERCOT  The rain that has peppered the Houston and Dallas areas for most of the past week has eroded peak loads by 10,000-15,000 MW from the peak loads logged early in the month. Accordingly, 7x24 real-time prices have cleared around $15/MWh. Meanwhile, the July/August on-peak summer strip has fallen from $130/MWh to $95/MWh since early June, when summer was expected to start warmer and drier than usual. Drier weather and more seasonable loads are projected throughout most of ERCOT over the next week, but wind generation, expected to be strong, could keep a lid on prices, at least in the short term.

EAST Prices have remained stable this week across most of the regional ISOs with the exception of ISO-NE, where a generator tripped yesterday to push RT prices past $200/MWh in HE19. The warmer weather has yet to trigger any CORE alerts from Calpine Energy Solutions.

NATURAL GAS 

The EIA reported Thursday morning that, for the week ending June 19, U.S. inventories increased by 120 Bcf, overshooting the expected range of 96-116 Bcf. Total stockpiles now stand at 3,012 Bcf, up by 32.5% from a year ago and 18.3% above the five-year average for the same week.

As of 10:00 a.m. PDT, the July NYMEX contract, which expires tomorrow, dropped below $1.50/MMBtu on the unexpectedly robust injection, sink-ing by $0.130/MMBtu from yester-day’s close to $1.467/MMBtu, a new life-of-contract low. Subsequent months through October 2020 were also off by double digits. In fact, the first “green” month on the board is May 2022, which was up by $0.010/MMBtu to $2.273/MMBtu.

Southern California Gas Company recently announced that its Aliso Canyon storage facility has been filled to the allowable volume to provide relief during high-temperature peak-usage days during the summer. The news may have contributed to a sell-off in basis at SoCal Border for the prompt month through one year out. Basis at PG&E Citygate was also lower through five years out. June cash prices were low-er at both PG&E Citygate and SoCal Citygate.

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