POWER MARKETS
WEST As this first full week of October wraps up, temperatures have dropped and pushed peak demand levels down in the process. However, as Diablo Canyon and Palo Verde, the only two nuclear plants on the West Coast, go offline for refueling and many natural gas units shut down for planned maintenance this month, signif-icantly reducing the amount of flexible supply available, prices remain at risk of spiking. Additionally, the DC transmission line that conducts electricity from the Pacific Northwest to Southern California will be unavailable for an extended period beginning October 15, further restricting the supply of power to CAISO.
ERCOT Real-time price volatility ticked up in the first week of October from its average for all of September. As some generation has been taken offline for maintenance, afternoon wind output has been low, and loads have been slightly higher this week, 7x24 real-time prices have averaged in the mid-to-upper $20s/MWh, although the average across just the afternoon peaks for a few days this week managed to top $100/MWh. Term 7x24 prices have been flat from last week after giving up a few dollars last week on TXU’s announcement that it did not have any current plans to retire any additional coal capacity within ERCOT.
EAST Both DA and RT prices have averaged in the mid-$10s/MWh to low $20s/MWh in the main trading hubs this week. DART spreads have been minimal. The largest spread for the week is $2.60/MWh in Mass Hub due to the over-performance of load in NYISO, which has limited imports into ISO-NE on the NY-AC connection.