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MARKET TREND ANALYSIS

Weekly Energy Market Updates by Region - Archive

 

 

 


Issue week: April 22nd, 2021  (Wk 16)

 

POWER MARKETS

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WESTIn Mid-C, Day Ahead prices have averaged around $39/MWh so far this month because of a dearth of precipitation, current fish spill policies, and above-average demand in the Pacific Northwest. In the forward market, prices for Q3 2021 and 2022 continue to climb amid the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s prediction of a hot summer due to aftereffects of La Niña and worsening drought conditions in California and Nevada.

ERCOT  Real-time prices have retreated considerably since last week. Despite continuing outages close to 30,000 MW, available reserves have been about 10,000 MW higher than expected because of lower loads. Consequently, the 7x24 real-time average for the week has shriveled to the upper $20s/MWh from approximately $100/MWh last week. The real-time recoil also sparked a selloff in Bal-21 7x24 forward prices, which, after rallying by more than $2.50/MWh last week, gave up more than half of that gain and are currently around $34/MWh. Meanwhile, CY strips for 2022 and beyond have been relatively steady after rising by approximately $1/MWh last week. in the curve over the last few weeks.

EAST Cold weather has raised prices slightly this week. Averages are highest in MISO’s Indiana Hub, where Day Ahead is at $30/MWh and Real Time is at $37/MWh. In ISO-NE’s Mass Hub, both Day Ahead and Real Time are averaging $29/MWh. Day Ahead is also averaging $29/MWh in PJM’s West Hub, but Real Time there is coming in at $26/MWh.

NATURAL GAS 

The EIA reported Thursday morning that, for the week ending April 16, U.S. inventories increased by 38 Bcf, well below the projected 61 Bcf injection. Total stockpiles now stand at 1,883 Bcf, down by 11.8% from a year ago but still 0.6% above the five-year average for the same week.

Within 5 minutes following the EIA’s report, the NYMEX prompt-month contract, which had been in the red from yesterday’s closing, shot up by $0.069/MMBtu in response to the underwhelming sup-ply addition. It ultimately ended Thursday with a preliminary settlement of $2.749/MMBtu, $0.057/MMBtu above Wednesday’s close. Thanks not only to the shutdown of Unit 2 at the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant today but also to snowpack at only 30% of normal in the Pacific Northwest and water reserves at only 80% of normal in Mid-C, which could limit power imports into California this summer, CAISO may very well find itself leaning more heavily on natural gas. Consequently, basis at SoCal Border, through five years out, traded in positive territory from yesterday.

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