WEST The AC and DC transmission lines that provide California much needed flexible power from the Pacific Northwest during the nightly ramp have been de-rated by a cumula-tive 5,600 MW because of the Bootleg Fire raging in Oregon. Consequently, CAISO last Friday declared a Stage 2 Emergency to indicate that it could no longer satisfy expected energy requirements. With the loss of imports, the ATC Day Ahead LMP has spiked during the nightly ramp, averaging around $80/MWh in SP15 and NP15 since Friday.
ERCOT As afternoon showers along the Gulf Coast and across central Texas have kept peak loads well below normal, 7x24 real-time prices have remained relatively low again this week, averaging around $25/MWh. Moreover, a cool front expected to cross the state early next week should limit price volatility then as well. However, for the last week of July, currently trading at $90/MWh for on-peak, volatility in real-time prices could rise as temperatures and loads return to levels more normal for this time of year. In the term mar-ket, August peak prices are also staying firm around $120/MWh, $10/MWh above last week. Further down the curve, CY strips through 2023 are relatively flat from last week, but strips for 2024 and beyond are up by approximately $0.50/MWh on stronger natural gas prices further out the curve.
EAST As the weather has stayed warm this week, prices have not moved far from last week’s averages. In NYISO, volatility in index prices has settled down. In NYC, this week’s Day Ahead and Real Time averages are $41/MWh and $40/MWh, respectively, whereas both Day Ahead and Real Time are averaging in the mid-$30s/MWh in all of the other main hubs.