Weekly Energy Market Updates by Region




Issue week: August 19th, 2021  (Wk 33)





WEST  Last Sunday’s explosion on the Cimmaron portion of the El Paso Natural Gas Pipeline, which connects the Permian Basin to Southern California, has jeopardized the supply of natural gas on which SoCal Gas relies for daily balancing. Because, as of now, this pipeline will be out of commission indefinitely, SoCal Gas will have to count on its own stores for the balance of the summer. Fortunately, its inventories are at yearly highs. Forward markets for Bal-Year 2021 and Calendar Year 2022 spiked on Monday after the news but eased back down on Tuesday, erasing the initial price increase.

ERCOT  Real-time prices have settled in the low $30s/MWh at all load zones this week. Evening showers and continuing negligibility in drought conditions across the state have dampened market volatility. Led by falling term natural gas prices, term prices have fallen by nearly $1.00/MWh this week. In addition, the ORDC adder is still minimal, and the tropics remain clear.

EAST Load has exceeded expectations in ISO-NE all week, driving up both Day Ahead and Real Time LMPs. The Day Ahead and Real Time averages there are $54/MWh and $55/MWh, respectively. Both Day Ahead and Real Time are also higher this week in NYISO because of load upside and exports to ISO-NE. In Hudson Valley, Day Ahead is averaging $44/MWh while Real Time is averaging $46/MWh. The story is similar in PJM, where load has been surprisingly large. However, the DART spread has been minimal this week in West Hub, where both Day Ahead and Real Time are around $40/MWh.


The EIA reported Thursday morning that, for the week ending August 13, U.S. inventories increased by 46 Bcf, not much more than the anticipated increase of 44 Bcf. Total stockpiles now stand at 2,818 Bcf, down by 16.2% from a year ago and 5.8% below the five-year average for the same week.

September NYMEX futures have stayed under $4/MMBtu this week and today had a preliminary closing price of $3.830/MMBtu, $0.022/MMBtu lower than yesterday’s. Nearly all of the active strips through 2024 sustained a slight dip from yesterday as well.






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