WEST Over the month of October, Day Ahead prices have averaged around $56/MWh and $66/MWh in SP15 and NP15, respectively. That $10/MWh spread between the two regions of California is attributable to the greater stores of natural gas in Southern California than in Northern California. In the term market, prices have been relatively flat over the week.
ERCOT Real-time prices should moderate a bit over the next few days as the last of the summer weather for this year finally seems ready to let fall take over in earnest. Nonetheless, the final average for October real-time prices should be greater than $50/MWh, well above the final values for both October 2020 and October 2019. Meanwhile, nearly 20 GW of generation remains down for maintenance as outage season continues. Because of the persistent uptrend in the gas curve that began early in the month, term prices are up in the front of the curve. The resultant backwardation presents attractive buying opportunities. Indeed, prices for 2025 are nearly $15-$20/MWh below the front of the curve.
EAST Day Ahead prices have largely remained steady since last week. However, whereas most hubs are in the $51-$57/MWh range with minimal change, ISO-NE’s Mass Hub is down by $9/MWh. Real Time prices, on the other hand, have generally moved up from last week. Most hubs have ranged from $52/MWh to $59/MWh; the $7/MWh rise in NYC is the largest jump. Again, the outlier is Mass Hub, where Real Time has dropped by $5/MWh.