WEST The beginning of November has not meant the end of above-average Day Ahead prices, which have averaged around $64/MWh and $56/MWh in SP15 and Mid-C, respectively, this week. In the forward market, CY2022 has trended slightly lower, thanks to a fall in forward natural gas prices. In related news, market participants are closely watching the results of today’s vote by the California Public Utilities Commission on the issue of raising the capacity of the Alison Canyon storage facility from 34 Bcf to either 41 Bcf or 68.8 Bcf.
ERCOT Averaging over $80/MWh despite typical autumn loads, real-time 7x24 prices have been especially strong in the first few days of November. Indeed, they are 300% higher than at the same time last year, when they averaged $20/MWh. Extended outages, disappointing renewable generation, higher spot natural gas prices, and the prospect of greater ancillary service procurements appear to have contributed to the recent increase. Conversely, forward prices have decreased considerably from last week on lower forward gas prices. Strips for CY22, CY23, and CY24 have dropped by $3/MWh, $2/MWh, and $2/MWh, respectively. As outer-year term strips trade in the mid-$30s/MWh, these years represent significant bargains relative to current real-time prices.
EAST Whereas LMPs in ISO-NE and NYISO are similar to last week’s, prices in the main hubs in MISO and PJM are higher, especially in the last few days, because of planned outages, unexpectedly high load, and underperforming wind generation. In MISO’s Indy Hub, Day Ahead prices are up by almost $9/MWh while Real Time is $14/MWh greater. Similarly, Day Ahead in PJM’s West Hub is $8/MWh above last week while Real Time has risen by $12/MWh.