WEST In the cash market, imports on the Palo Verde line continue to ramp up, although they are not at full capacity because of the nuclear outage. Rough weather in the Pacific Northwest has not yet affected transmission into CAISO. Solar generation remains strong, but wind output has been weaker than expected. Fortunately, the lackluster windmill activity should not be a problem, for the relatively uneventful weather has kept demand in check. Overall, the cash market is functioning without any hiccups.
ERCOT Although prices approached $100/MWh earlier in the month because of forecasts of cold weather, 7x24 real-time prices have averaged only $32/MWh this week despite the frigid conditions. In the term market, the focus is now on February as low temperatures and freezing precipitation are now projected toward the end of next week. Accordingly, 7x24 prices for February are up by approximately $20/MWh since last week from $45/MWh to $66/MWh. Ongoing cold-weather forecasts across most of the nation plus sizable natural gas withdrawals have increased term prices further down the curve as well. BY22, CY23, and CY24 have risen by approximately $5/MWh, $1.50/MWh, and $1.00/MWh, respectively, since last week.
EAST As they did last week, LMPs remain elevated in both ISO-NE and NYISO, where both Day Ahead and Real Time have averaged around $160/MWh this week. These prices are roughly $100/MWh higher than last January’s prices in both markets. Meanwhile, prices in PJM and MISO are a bit higher than last week but still well below $100/MWh.