Weekly Energy Market Updates by Region




Issue week: March 10th, 2022  (Wk 10)





WEST  Day Ahead prices have averaged around $40/MWh and $35/MWh in SP15 and Mid-C, respectively, since the beginning of March. However, during the middle of the day, the influx of solar and hydro generation has pulled prices down around $10/MWh. During the nightly ramp, prices have averaged $65/MWh as fastramping natural gas generators have had to be dispatched to meet peak demand. In the term market, forward prices have dipped slightly since last week because of projections of strong precipitation in the Pacific Northwest over the next two weeks.

ERCOT  Real-time prices have stayed relatively strong for this time of year; 7x24 prices are averaging around $40/MWh this week on abnormally cold weather. As what appears to be the last strong cold front of the winter makes its way across the state, real-time prices are expected to remain somewhat volatile over the next couple of days as well but should be mitigated by wind generation projected in excess of 10,000 MW. In the term market, the front of the curve through December 2023 is up by approximately $2/MWh from last week, tracking a rise in summer heat rates. The back of the curve from CY27 and beyond is also about $2/MWh higher as long term NG strips have surged by $0.15/MMBtu.

EAST Prices have come down significantly since last week; averages for both Day Ahead and Real Time are under $100/MWh in all of the regional ISOs. Specifically, MISO and PJM are in the $40s/MWh while NYISO is in the $50s/MWh. The highest averages continue to be found in ISO-NE, where Day Ahead is at $80/MWh and Real Time is at $70/MWh.


The EIA reported Thursday morning that, for the week ending March 4, U.S. inventories decreased by 124 Bcf, approximately 8% less than the expected extraction of 135 Bcf. Total stockpiles now stand at 1,519 Bcf, down by 15.6% from a year ago and 16.0% below the five-year average for the same week.

The NYMEX Henry Hub prompt month of April settled today at $4.631/MMBtu, $0.105/MMBtu higher than yesterday’s closing but $0.385/MMBtu lower than last Friday’s finish. Market fundamentals look rather ursine in the coming weeks as weather driven demand should drop with the arrival of spring, U.S. exports of LNG to Mexico may slow for maintenance, and higher springtime wind output may crowd out gas-fired generation. In addition, production should edge higher as producers continue to boost upstream activity at a frenzied pace because of higher oil and gas prices.







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