Weekly Energy Market Updates by Region




Issue week: March 24th, 2022  (Wk 12)





WEST  Volatility in the CAISO Real Time market was strong last Saturday and Sunday after the AC transmission line connecting the Pacific Northwest to Northern California was derated by 4,200 MW from HE 9 on Saturday morning through HE 20 on Sunday night. The resultant drop in imports during the morning and nightly ramp drove the Real Time average LMP in NP15 to $175/MWh for those days. Meanwhile, the rise in the NYMEX forward curve has lifted the forward curve for all of the regional pricing hubs this week.

ERCOT  Averaging around $25/MWh, real-time prices have been relatively subdued this week. Despite the loss of approximately 25,000 MW of generation for seasonal maintenance, mild weather and strong wind generation have kept prices relatively low. However, prices in just the West and Houston Load Zones are averaging around $35/MWh, thanks to congestion typical for this time of year as a result of the usual plant and line maintenance. Although warmer weather is forecasted for the next week or so, wind generation is projected to remain robust, so hub prices should remain relatively stable. Nonetheless, congestion will likely continue while plants remain down. In the term market, CY strips keep rising on the continuing surge in natural gas prices; the prompt 12-month, 24-month, and 36-month strips are up by $4/MWh, $3/MWh, and $2/MWh, respectively, since last week. Even with the higher natural gas prices, summer heat rates are holding relatively firm, but summer prices could still take a bullish turn as drought conditions develop over central and western Texas.

EAST Prices have continued their downward trend and are averaging in the $40s/MWh across the board. This week, Day Ahead is averaging $44/MWh while the Real Time average is lower by less than $1/MWh. In NYISO and ISO-NE especially, prices have finally calmed down and are in line with the other ISOs in the region.


The EIA reported Thursday morning that, for the week ending March 18, U.S. inventories decreased by 51 Bcf, considerably less than the 61 Bcf removal expected by the industry. Total stockpiles now stand at 1,389 Bcf, down by 20.9% from a year ago and 17.4% below the five-year average for the same week.

The NYMEX Henry Hub prompt month of April settled today at $5.401/MMBtu, $0.169/MMBtu higher than yesterday’s close and 11% higher than last week ’s final. In fact, it has traded higher every day this week by an average of $0.135/MMBtu over the day before. The April strip will expire next Tuesday, so volatility is expected to increase, especially considering that the start of “bid week” tomorrow will introduce another variable that could move prices more than usual.







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