WEST Throughout June, the Day Ahead LMP has averaged around $70/MWh in CAISO and $22/MWh in Mid-C. That massive spread is attributable to the robust hydro generation in the Pacific Northwest, which peaked above 20 GW in the last two weeks. In contrast, above-average temperatures and formidable spot prices for natural gas kept index prices elevated all month long in California. In the forward market, today’s substantial dip in the NYMEX forward curve precipitated a drop of approximately $8/MWh in the SP15 forward curve for Q3 since last Friday.
ERCOT Term prices have been mostly lower out the curve this week as higher natural gas prices have been more than offset by lower heat rates. Real-time prices have also moderated with the more seasonable weather that has emerged over the past few days, although the monthly real-time averages in the Houston and North Load Zones are still in the mid-$60s/MWh, nearly 50% above those of June 2021.
EAST Prices are again higher in the Midwest than in the Northeast this week. Indeed, the peak average is $99/MWh in PJM but only $83/MWh in NYISO and $75/MWh in ISO-NE. Heat will surely stimulate demand across the Midwest and along the Eastern Seaboard on Friday before the fever breaks over the holiday weekend.